(15 September 2026)
- New analysis finds Dublin Airport faces one of Europe’s sharpest rises in aviation emissions as government removes passenger cap
- Ireland cannot credibly claim climate leadership while planning for continued growth in aviation emissions, says Opportunity Green
Dublin Airport is on track to exhaust its fair-share carbon budget 16 years early, by 2034, just as the Government moves to remove the brakes on further airport expansion, according to a new report.
The report, Overshoot: How expansion plans break European airports’ carbon limits (T&E), published by Opportunity Green, examines 20 major airports across 10 European countries against a Paris-aligned 1.7°C carbon budget.
It finds that all 20 airports are on course to overshoot their carbon budgets under current expansion plans, even after projected improvements from more efficient aircraft and sustainable aviation fuels are considered.
“Increasing traffic volume by adding runways and extending terminals cancels out any benefits from cleaner fuels or efficient engines. No plausible tech improvement can close the gap in time,” said Denise Auclair, head of T&E’s Travel Smart campaign. “So, governments have a choice to make. They can either keep approving expansion, or meet their climate obligations. They simply cannot do both.”
For Dublin Airport, the findings are particularly stark, with the report calculating it has a fair-share carbon allocation of approximately 27 million tonnes of CO₂ between now and 2050. However, under planned expansion, annual emissions are projected to increase by 65%, exhausting that entire carbon budget by 2034.
Dublin Airport accounted for approximately 88% of Ireland’s departing aviation emissions in 2025, making it the critical pressure point in Ireland’s aviation climate policy.
Sorcha Tunney, Senior Manager at Opportunity Green Ireland, said:
“The findings in this report are shocking. Ireland cannot credibly claim climate leadership while simultaneously planning for continued growth in aviation emissions. At precisely the moment Dublin Airport is facing running out of carbon budget, the Government is removing one of the only effective brakes on its expansion by lifting the passenger cap.”
“Ireland is not simply loosening Dublin Airport’s passenger cap – it has legislated away the prospect of even having one. This is therefore not just a decision about Dublin Airport, but a decision about the future trajectory of Ireland’s aviation emissions.”
The report finds:
- Allowing Dublin Airport to grow to 40 million passengers a year would generate approximately four million additional tonnes of CO₂ above emissions associated with existing capacity.
- If passenger numbers rise to 40 million by 2030 and subsequently reach 60 million by 2050, additional emissions would reach approximately 14 million tonnes of CO₂, close to half of Ireland’s total annual CO₂ emissions in 2024.
- All 20 European airports analysed are projected to overshoot their fair-share 1.7°C carbon budgets under current expansion plans, with Dublin Airport ranked third highest, exceeding its budget by a factor of 2.8.
- Aircraft departing European airports are projected to burn almost 60% more fuel in 2050 than in 2019, as traffic growth outpaces improvements in aircraft efficiency.
The findings come just months after the Government passed legislation allowing the Minister for Transport to raise or remove Dublin Airport’s long-standing 32 million passenger cap, while also preventing a similar passenger cap from simply being imposed again in the future.
The report notes that Dublin Airport handled approximately 36.4 million passengers in 2025, already above the original 32 million planning limit. A separate planning application seeks capacity for 40 million passengers annually, while the airport’s two runways have been identified as potentially capable of accommodating up to 60 million passengers a year.
The report also warns that the costs of aviation expansion extend far beyond climate, arguing that the people paying the price of aviation growth are not necessarily those benefiting from it.
For example, Ireland records the largest absolute increase in house prices linked to air-tourism growth among the countries examined, with an average annual rent increase of approximately €250 over the next five years projected.
Ms Tunney said the contradiction is even more pronounced during Ireland’s Presidency of the Council of the European Union.
“How can Ireland, as President of the Council, credibly ask Europe to demonstrate greater climate ambition while facilitating aviation expansion at home without a plan for the emissions that expansion will generate?” she questioned.
Opportunity Green is calling on the Government to:
- Align Dublin Airport permitted passenger capacity with the airport’s remaining Paris-compatible carbon budget.
- Include international aviation emissions in Ireland’s climate planning and establish a transparent, independently determined carbon budget for Dublin Airport against which all future expansion should be assessed – in line with best practice in the United Kingdom and France.
- Use taxation to manage aviation demand, including appropriate taxation of aviation fuel, VAT on air tickets and full coverage of departing flights under the EU Emissions Trading System.
- Redirect public investment away from unnecessary airport capacity expansion towards cleaner transport alternatives, prioritising rail on routes where it can realistically replace air travel.
Ms Tunney said:
“The benefits of increased passenger traffic accrue largely to passengers, airlines, airports and parts of the tourism economy, while the wider costs are absorbed by society through climate damage, pressure on housing, congestion and infrastructure.”
ENDS
Notes to editors
Please find full report here.