Download documents
Download briefingBackground
On 10 February 2026, the Irish Cabinet approved priority drafting of the Dublin Airport (Passenger Capacity) Bill 2026, which would give the Minister for Transport the authority to amend or remove the airport’s 32m annual passenger limit. The airport already handled a record 36.4m passengers in 2025, in breach of the existing cap. The Bill would also prevent any future passenger cap from being introduced.
The legislation as currently drafted exempts the Minister from the obligation (under Section 15 of the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015) to have regard to key national climate commitments when exercising ministerial powers.
Opportunity Green commissioned an independent legal opinion from barrister Tim Johnston of Brick Court Chambers, which finds that this exemption does not absolve the government of its broader legal obligations and that proceeding without fully assessing the climate and human rights consequences of the cap lift exposes the State to significant litigation risks.
The scale of the problem
Lifting the cap to just 40m passengers annually would increase aviation emissions by 24%, adding 580,495 tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2034 compounding Ireland’s already serious failure to meet its legally binding climate targets.
Communities living near the airport face intensified noise pollution and deteriorating air quality, with inadequate consultation or protection under the current Bill. In light of growing international legal precedent, including rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, the Dutch Supreme Court, and the International Court of Justice, these are not theoretical risks. They are live and credible legal exposures.
What’s covered in the briefing?
The Irish government cannot exempt itself from climate accountability simply by disapplying Section 15 of the 2015 Act. The legal obligations remain, they are merely pushed downstream to future decision-makers, constraining future governments, planning authorities, and carbon budgets in ways that may prove far more costly and disruptive than addressing them now.
Ireland is already projected to reach only mid-to-high 20% emissions reductions by 2030 against a legally binding 51% target. Lifting the cap significantly worsens that gap, and in light of recent ECtHR and ICJ rulings, this creates a credible and live risk of human rights litigation against the State under Article 8 ECHR.
The absence of a comprehensive Environmental Impact Assessment, one that accounts for Scope 1 to 3 emissions and downstream climate effects, is not a procedural gap but a legal vulnerability. European courts have made clear that this is no longer acceptable for high-emitting projects.
Communities living near Dublin Airport face intensified noise and air pollution with no meaningful assessment or consultation mechanism in the Bill. A Dutch court has already found a comparable approach unlawful. Ireland faces the same exposure.
The Bill’s framework effectively forecloses future policy options. Removing the cap permanently, while bypassing climate law, narrows the discretion of every subsequent decision-maker across planning, infrastructure, and emissions policy.
Sorcha Tunney, Ireland Senior Manager at Opportunity Green, says:
“Ireland risks facing similar legal challenges if the legislation proceeds without significant changes. This legal opinion sends an extremely serious warning to government. Attempting to carve Dublin Airport expansion out of Ireland’s climate laws does not remove the state’s legal obligations. It simply pushes the consequences downstream and increases the risk of litigation.
“The direction of travel internationally is now unmistakable. Courts across Europe are increasingly holding governments accountable where climate inaction threatens human rights and public health.
“Removing the passenger cap without fully assessing the climate, environmental and community impacts would expose the Irish State to significant legal vulnerability at precisely the moment Ireland is already struggling to meet its climate commitments.”
Authors
- Lead author: Sophie Prinz
- Co-author: Sorcha Tunney
- Co-author: Laurent Sammouri
