Loaded: the legal risks of air pollution caused by Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Background  

Heavy-duty vehicles make up just 3% of vehicles on the road, yet account for a wildly disproportionate share of transport-related air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. The health, economic, and climate consequences are severe, and increasingly well-documented.

This briefing examines the legal exposure that flows from that evidence base. It sets out the mounting risks facing both governments, for failing to regulate adequately, and truck manufacturers, for the design and emissions choices behind their vehicles.

Drawing on recent rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, the International Court of Justice and domestic courts across Europe, the briefing argues that the legal landscape is shifting decisively and that inaction is becoming an increasingly costly position to defend.

The scale of the problem 

Trucks sold by four major manufacturers between 2014 and 2023 are projected to cause 307,000 premature deaths and 217,000 new childhood asthma cases over their lifetime, at an estimated economic cost of $1.4tn. Air pollution overall causes over 5 million deaths annually and costs the global economy trillions of dollars each year, a burden falling disproportionately on already vulnerable communities.

What’s covered in the briefing? 

• The scale and systemic nature of air pollution as a public health, economic and human rights crisis, and why trucks represent a uniquely outsized contributor relative to their numbers on the road.
• How air pollution, climate change and nature loss reinforce one another, meaning that tackling one in isolation is rarely enough, and why this matters for credible corporate and investor strategy.
• The expanding legal exposure facing states, from international climate and human rights law to domestic air quality litigation, and what recent landmark rulings mean for government accountability.
• The widening risk landscape facing OEMs, spanning regulatory compliance, business and human rights obligations, and an emerging shift toward direct civil liability for emissions-related harm.
• Why these legal risks are translating into material financial exposure, including realised penalties already running into the billions, and measurable market reactions to climate-related litigation.

Our recommendations

For states:

• Set clear, long-term, technology-neutral emissions targets for commercial vehicles.
• Simplify and de-risk funding pathways for the transition to zero-emission trucks.
• Use targeted subsidies and emissions-linked road charges to accelerate uptake, particularly among small fleets.

For OEMs:

• Publish credible, time-bound transition plans toward zero-emission HDVs.
• Invest in addressing non-exhaust emissions (tyre and brake wear) alongside electrification.
• Align lobbying activity with stated climate and health commitments.

Matilda Graham, Legal Manager, says:

“The evidence is clear: trucks are responsible for a death toll that rivals some of the most notorious environmental disasters of our time. What’s striking is how quickly the legal landscape is now catching up with that evidence. Courts across Europe are increasingly willing to hold both governments and manufacturers accountable for the real-world harm caused by air pollution, and the financial consequences are no longer hypothetical – they’re already being felt. States and OEMs that move early to align with this direction of travel won’t just reduce their legal exposure; they’ll be positioning themselves to lead a transition that is, frankly, inevitable.”

Authors

• Lead author: Matilda Graham
• Co-author: Laurent Sammouri

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