Positive stories from COP28
Dubai’s COP28 climate negotiations came to a close yesterday after two weeks of intense negotiations to set the world on track for a sustainable future. We look back on some of the most notable silver linings this year’s conference had to offer.
Image credit: The President’s Office of the Republic of the Maldives
1. A flying start for the loss and damage fund
COP28 kicked off with a dramatic start as a Loss and Damage fund was agreed on day one. Loss and damage was always set to be a major theme of this year’s conference after the promise of a fund to compensate states for the deleterious effects of climate change became the defining win of 2022’s COP27. Realising that commitment – and so quickly into this year’s negotiations – was undoubtedly a triumph.
However, perhaps more important than the fund’s existence is what actually goes into it. Unfortunately, the $700 million pledged over the course of the rest of the negotiations amounts to only 0.2% of the total sum needed. Nevertheless, this does represent another key step in the process of leveraging finance for climate justice, and is accompanied by other loss and damage initiatives, such as Australia’s separate commitment of A$150 to Pacific island states.
2. New taxation targets in the crosshairs
In other climate finance news, the launch of the “task force on international taxation to scale up development, climate and nature action” is a promising development.
This new initiative will establish international targeted taxation schemes to fund climate adaptation and mitigation measures in developing countries. Proposals for new tax structures are expected by 2030, future targets of which could include private jets, business-class air travel, financial services, and excess profits reaped by fossil fuel companies. Also mentioned was a shipping emissions levy, a fruitful and overlooked opportunity for releasing funds, as our Shipping Manager Ana Laranjeira explained last week.
The task force idea was conceived ahead of COP28 by France and Kenya, specifically taking aim at fossil fuel producers, and has since found support from Spain, Barbados, and Antigua and Barbuda.
Laurence Tubiana, President of the European Climate Foundation and a key figure behind the task force, said:
"There are many financial streams not contributing to solutions for avoiding the most catastrophic consequences of climate change. It's about lifting a taboo."
Appropriately taxing polluters for their emissions and strategically redistributing funds would propel efforts to achieve zero emissions and help climate-vulnerable states transition and adapt to climate change. Perhaps most significantly, however, it would represent a key paradigm shift: rather than relying solely on rich countries’ commitments to finance mitigation and adaptation (which must continue and increase), new and additional funds could be coerced out of polluters to pay for the effects of their behaviour, marking a huge step in the struggle for climate justice.
3. Energy: tripling renewables, doubling efficiency
130 countries including the EU have now signed a pledge launched on Friday 8 December to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and double energy efficiency on a yearly basis.
While notable major absences include China and India, the signatories to date account for 40% of global emissions and 56% of GDP. And this pledge addresses two of the five areas highlighted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as “central pillars for action” between now and 2030 to keeping global temperatures below a 1.5 degree increase above pre-industrial levels.
The substance of the pledges is by no means enough, with the IEA estimating that the full delivery of all energy pledges taken at COP28 would close the emissions gap by just 30%. Nevertheless, such pledges are key steps: scaling up renewables is crucial for enabling a fossil fuel phaseout while meeting energy demand and keeping prices steady to ensure the transition is just and equitable.
4. Keeping food on the table
The USA and UAE collectively dedicated an additional $9 billion to the Agriculture Innovation Mission (AIM), launched at Glasgow’s COP26 to drive food system development in low- and middle-income countries.
Food systems are under dire threat from changing global temperatures, weather patterns, and extreme weather events as a result of climate change. The joint initiative is therefore a crucial part of the struggle to adapt to the disastrous consequences of the climate crisis. Future projects range from encouraging farmers to change agricultural practices to developing microbes to store carbon in soil.
Despite its clear importance, concerns have been raised about the agricultural initiative presenting a means for greenwashing. For example, states could give funds to this venture instead of dedicating efforts to the more controversial but more impactful endeavour to reduce fossil fuel consumption. Adaptation measures such as this must always come alongside, rather than instead of, efforts to mitigate the worst of the climate crisis.
5. Fossil fuels: phasing out or transitioning away?
The final day of COP is always a whirlwind of negotiation, and this year was no exception. Negotiators tussled over how to include fossil fuels in the Global Stocktake, finally settling on the phrasing “transitioning away”. While not nearly as strong as the originally drafted “phase out” or “phase down”, the very inclusion of fossil fuels in the COP deal constitutes a watershed moment.
Beyond lacking the assertiveness of "phase out”, the wording “transition away” leaves scope for continued adoption of so-called “transition fuels” such as liquified natural gas (LNG), a fossil fuel itself as highlighted in Opportunity Green’s report earlier this year. Whether such phrasing adequately advances decarbonisation rather than just allowing polluters to swap one fossil fuel for another is a contentious issue.
The agreement has been deemed controversial not just for its contents, but also its procedure. Shortly after the agreement was passed, Samoa negotiation leader Anne Rasmussen spoke on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) noting that her bloc was not in the room when the gavel marked the conclusion of negotiations, demonstrating a failure, if not a violation, of COP’s consensus-based approach. Blánaid Sheeran, Project Assistant in Opportunity Green’s shipping team commented:
“Small island developing states are on the frontlines of the climate crisis and are global leaders in the fight against climate change. Finalising the Global Stocktake text without their consent is a grave breach of the principles of climate justice.”
It shouldn’t have taken 30 years to include fossil fuels in a COP agreement, but nevertheless their eventual mention is a momentous achievement. Some are hailing the agreement as the beginning of the end for fossil fuels. Naming the problem is a crucial first step – the lingering question is how far that step will take us.
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