Diplomacy can still deliver climate justice. Let’s see COP29 prove it.

There is nothing unexpected about the extreme weather events that wreak regular havoc across the globe. They demonstrate more than ever the importance for this COP to enshrine solidarity in global climate finance.  

Extreme weather and climate justice  

You don’t have to look too far these days to find headlines about the ‘unprecedented’ climate impacts we are experiencing as a planet. It’s a funny word – unprecedented – it covers a multitude of sins. To most of us it means that these impacts are ‘unexpected’, ‘surprising’, or perhaps are first-of-a-kind.  

But the problem is, none of this is unprecedented. Anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change has been well understood and well documented for decades, and these ‘never-before-seen’ effects are the all too predictable consequence of years of insufficient climate action. We have had billion dollar ‘once in a lifetime’ climate shocks every year since 1980 (the US alone has had 400 in that time). The last two weeks alone have seen floods strike France, Italy, the US, the DRC, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Philippines, and Spain where the death toll has hit 214 and is still rising.

But while these shocks are experienced by all countries, they disproportionately affect those in the Global South, exacerbating a huge and ongoing injustice. We have now gotten to the point where the most affected countries in the southern hemisphere barely have time to catch their breath from one climate shock before they are launched into the aftermath of the next. People who have done little or nothing to contribute to causing climate change often suffer its worst impacts.  

COP29 must deliver equitable climate finance  

For those of us privileged enough to not have to endure the climate catastrophe first hand, it is easy to get lost in the noise of wildfires, hurricanes and floods and lose sight of the fact that we still don’t have a globally coordinated response to this vast and growing threat. Next week the eyes of the world will turn to Baku, Azerbaijan where the third consecutive COP summit to be hosted in a petrostate will be taking place, an irony not lost on those who campaign to curb fossil fuel use and consign the world’s first worst addiction to the history books.  

The biggest priority at COP29 is finance. This year’s conference will reveal how much money global governments collectively are willing to commit to preventing, minimising and redressing global loss and damage. The scale of the need is huge – estimates of up to $1 trillion annually dwarf the $100bn that is allegedly currently spent – and it is painfully clear that governments couldn’t bridge that gap in its entirety even if they had the political will to do so.  

But there are rays of hope to suggest that multilateral fora can still deliver us a just and equitable transition. Just three weeks ago in London, negotiators at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) got closer to agreeing proposals to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping. This round of talks saw more and more member states favouring an industry levy that will enshrine the principles of justice and equity in who pays for these harmful emissions.  

Building solidarity at COP29  

This COP we must see member states showing similar ambition by:

• Committing at COP29 to bring international, and not just domestic, shipping and aviation emissions into their Nationally Determined Contributions (the individual country-level plans that state how it will reduce emissions and adapt to climate change).  

• Setting an ambitious target for the New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance (replacing and far exceeding the $100bn that was pledged in 2015 through the Paris Agreement).  

• Including a subgoal for the amount of finance to be pledged to address climate-induced loss and damage and ensure that finance can be made directly accessible to local communities most in need.  

• Committing to collaborate with the IMO and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), shipping and aviation being two high-polluting industries whose emissions are not yet falling, to bring consistent ambition across the UN bodies responsible for emissions and climate change.  

Negotiators could leave Baku with a renewed sense of global solidarity and ambition. Prioritising planetary health, climate justice and human rights for a just and equitable future that leaves no one behind. That would be unprecedented.  

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