The IMO’s October meetings: are we any closer to decarbonising shipping?

24 Oct

This month’s meetings at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) were, without a doubt, a critical step in our journey towards decarbonising global maritime. But with the 2025 deadline for adopting the basket of regulatory measures to phase out international shipping emissions looming, the pressure is greater than ever for IMO Member States to iron out the details.

Shipping’s race to reach net zero

The 17th Intersessional Working Group on GHG Emissions (ISWG-GHG 17), and the 82nd meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 82) marked the third and fourth major IMO climate meetings this year. Following the adoption of the revised 2023 IMO Strategy, now is the time to develop the measures that will allow us to achieve maritime decarbonisation, and ensure a just and equitable transition for all involved.

Although these were not decision-making meetings, they still played a crucial role in developing the final ‘mid-term’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions measures that will soon be agreed upon by countries. These mid-term measures, also known as the ‘basket of measures’, will comprise of a technical element (such as a global fuel standard (GFS)) and an economic element, a GHG emissions pricing mechanism (such as a feebate or levy).

Key takeaways from the International Maritime Organization negotiations

1. Growing participation from climate vulnerable countries

There has been a steady increase of voices from climate vulnerable countries, particularly from a varied range of countries across Africa, with their interventions on the floor truly shifting the dynamics in the IMO Plenary.

And as always, the Pacific Island States were a strong voice pushing for high ambition in the discussions, alongside a growing number of Caribbean delegations expressing their support and collaboration with the Pacific bloc.

It is essential to continue to ensure the participation of these countries in the IMO discussions, if we are to ensure a just and equitable transition that leaves no one behind.

At MEPC 82, the IMO Secretary-General reminded all delegations that more donations to the IMO’s Voluntary Multi-Donor Trust Fund (VMDTF) are needed. These funds financially support delegates from climate vulnerable countries to attend the numerous IMO GHG meetings next year in person.

2. Further development of the mid-term measures

During the previous MEPC (MEPC 81, March 2024), countries agreed upon an illustration of a draft possible outline of the ‘IMO Net-Zero Framework’. This is essentially a possible structure for amendments to the MARPOL Convention (the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships) Annex VI, which will be needed to allow for the adoption and entry into force of the basket of measures under discussion.

At this round of discussions, there was a clear effort from all parties on clarifying what the basket of measures will look like, with much work completed and greater convergence among countries. However, a lot still needs to be done to adopt a basket of measures by October next year.

Further discussions were held on the scope of amendments, such as:

The size of the ships the measures will apply to.

The nature of the technical element, for example which emissions it would cover and how its stringency would increase over time.

Negotiations concerning the economic element addressed the question of whether it should constitute a standalone measure alongside the technical measure, and potential uses for any revenues generated.

Regarding the different proposals put forward by delegations, we’ve also noted increased support for a levy on GHG emissions across the whole fuel lifecycle, also known as well-to-wake analysis. However, there are also a reasonable number of countries who either oppose a levy, or appear to be on the fence.

Amongst those supporting a levy, there are still different views on key elements. Points of disagreement include the levy’s starting price, how the revenues will be collected, managed and disbursed, whether they should be used to support projects outside of the maritime sector, or just within the sector, among other key details.

3. Findings of the Comprehensive Impact Assessment (CIA)

Prior to MEPC 82 and ISWG-GHG 17, a comprehensive impact assessment (CIA) was undertaken to assess how the potential basket of measures may impact the world’s shipping fleet and countries.

Countries heavily referenced elements from the CIA to support their positions during negotiations, but it was clear that there were diverging views regarding the outcome of the assessment.

A number of developing countries expressed concern regarding the need for more information on impacts on food security than there was detailed in the CIA reports. It was agreed that further study on this matter would be conducted, particularly in the context of developing countries that are dependent on net food imports to meet domestic demand. Findings are expected to be shared at next year’s meetings.

4. Fifth GHG Study and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) guidelines

The IMO has long emphasised its strict support for evidence-based decision making, and in the spirit of doing so, has commissioned numerous pieces of scientific research in the past. The IMO GHG Studies are used as a global reference in estimating GHG emissions from international shipping.

A total of four such IMO GHG Studies have been overseen by the IMO, with a fifth now in the works. During ISWG-GHG 17 and MEPC 82, countries further discussed the draft terms of reference for this new Study, as well as the possibility of establishing a new Steering Committee of IMO Member States to oversee the study. If all goes to plan, the IMO secretary will provide a revised document by MEPC 83 in April 2025.

Additionally, a group of experts will continue their research regarding the life cycle assessment (LCA) of the GHG intensity of marine fuels, with the intention of submitting a report of their work to MEPC 83.

What’s next?

2025 will be a monumental year on the road towards achieving the ambitions of the 2023 Strategy, with the final basket of measures to be approved during MEPC 83 in Spring 2025 (likely April 7-11) and adopted at an extraordinary MEPC in Autumn 2025 (likely October 13-14). ISWG-GHG 18 and 19 are planned for February and April respectively, as well as a separate ISWG APEE (Intersessional Working Group on Air Pollution and Energy Efficiency) following ISWG-GHG 19. If all goes according to plan, the measures will enter into force in 2027.

We were encouraged to see the tremendous efforts by all involved in ISWG-GHG 17 and MEPC 82. But with just months to go until the meetings in Spring 2025, the clock is ticking for countries to make their final decisions. We can expect countries to do a lot of behind-the-scenes informal discussions prior to the spring meetings, with the aim of reaching further convergences.

As we move forward, it's important that we keep on hearing from the ever-growing voices of climate vulnerable countries in the Plenary, whose interventions have already shifted the dynamics in the room in this recent round of negotiations. These are the countries with most at stake, and without them, the IMO simply won’t reach its commitment to ensure a just and equitable transition that leaves no country behind.

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