Did the latest IMO discussions deliver on climate?
We went into last week’s talks at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) feeling optimistic that Member States would step up at this pivotal moment before they adopt a revised GHG Strategy in July. Now the discussions have wrapped up, we’re left asking – how much did they deliver?
Let’s be clear. Last week’s round of technical talks at the UN’s maritime regulator was one of the last and most crucial opportunities for countries to contribute towards the IMO’s revised GHG Strategy.
If the IMO is serious about its commitment to a fair and equitable transition, this was the time to show it. By July, we need an agreement on revised emissions targets at the IMO that are in alignment with a 1.5°C pathway to zero by no later than 2050.
Pressure is mounting on the IMO
Pressure has been mounting ahead of these meetings. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, urged the IMO to revise its emissions target in line with the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5°C. And a growing number of industry players across the shipping value chain - such as the Getting to Zero Coalition, the Cargo Owners for Zero Emission Vessels (coZEV) coalition, the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA), and the signatories of the Joint Statement on Green Hydrogen and Green Shipping Commitments – are also adding their voice to the call for higher ambition at IMO.
The IMO’s current emissions Strategy is to reduce GHG emissions by at least 50% by 2050, but Guterres has stated that this target is not enough, and puts the shipping sector on a dismal pathway of above 3°C of global warming – far from the 1.5°C pathway it needs to achieve.
This year, there is a unique window of opportunity to change the course of international shipping emissions to align with the Paris Agreement temperature goals. But to keep the industry on track, it’s vital that we follow these three key principles:
Emissions are reduced immediately in this decade.
Interim GHG emission targets are set for 2030 and 2040, with a phase out by no later than 2050, and in line with 1.5°C.
Any targets and supporting measures are to be implemented in an equitable manner that leaves no country behind, especially those most vulnerable to climate change. These are often the smaller, most economically challenged countries that stand to lose the most from the effects of climate change if targets are not met – despite having contributed the least to the climate crisis.
A range of reactions from delegates
Members of the Opportunity Green team attended the week-long discussions. Our verdict? There now seems to exist a broad support for zero emissions by no later than 2050, and a good group of countries were also pushing for the IMO’s Strategy to deliver on 1.5°C. This is absolutely critical, especially for the low-lying States, and those nations most vulnerable to the negative impacts from climate change.
Despite this, however, many delegates were still debating their understanding of 'zero emissions', and not enough of them yet support clear and specific emission targets that can effectively get international shipping to 1.5°C.
We're approximately three months away from adopting a revised Strategy, so we do not have time for such a fundamental disagreement at this point in the discussion – nor when it comes to addressing the climate crisis.
The recent report from The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) couldn’t be any clearer in support of this position. It stated that it is absolutely vital that significant C02 reductions of 48% are made by 2030 or we will be heading for a dangerous 2.7°C of heating.
Growing support for regulatory measures
There were other glimmers of hope. Some countries are slowly starting to come forward to clarify which regulatory measures they're in support of. This is crucial, as these are the tools that will effectively turn the agreed revised emissions targets – to be adopted next July by the IMO – into reality.
In our view, if the IMO is to achieve an equitable transition, these measures must include an ambitious market-based mechanism, with part of its revenues going towards supporting climate vulnerable countries.
The World Bank has estimated that $1 trillion to $3.7 trillion could be raised from putting a price on shipping emissions by 2050. A measure of this scale would not only generate revenue to accelerate global shipping decarbonisation but do it in a way that supports the most climate vulnerable nations, advancing a fair and equitable transition for all.
More support for countries most vulnerable to climate change
The perspectives of climate vulnerable countries are urgently needed to achieve ambitious goals and an equitable transition, so the announcement of financial support for them was very welcome.
The new Voluntary Multi-Donor Trust Fund will go some way to facilitate the increased participation of these countries at the upcoming IMO negotiations up, by providing financial assistance to a number of participating delegates to cover their travel and daily subsistence costs during the meetings in London.
It was especially positive to hear France's announcement of a contribution of €30,000 to the fund.
However, if the fund is to be a success, this must be the first of many such contributions from other Member States and organisations in the near future.
The path towards 1.5°C
The negotiations clearly delivered a mixed bag of outcomes. We’re optimistic that there is broader support for zero emissions by no later than 2050, and that many countries are open to introducing the regulatory measures needed to get us there. But too many others are lagging behind with their heads in the sand. It remains to be seen whether the IMO’s Member States will step up and deliver a revised GHG Strategy that will steer the shipping industry on the right track, or not.
What we really need to see is countries supporting the climate vulnerable and making sure that zero means zero. But the bottom line is that we need to stop talking and start reducing emissions now: as we heard from the IPCC, there really is no time to waste.
Opportunity Green works bilaterally with a number of ambitious climate vulnerable IMO Member States, to increase their capacity to engage and participate at the climate IMO meetings. Find out more about our work with climate vulnerable countries and get in touch with our Shipping Manager Ana Laranjeira if you work at a London-based embassy and would like our help.
